Research areas: Development Economics, Political Economy, Economic History

I am a job market candidate in economics at the Vancouver School of Economics of the University of British Columbia. I am a 2023-2024 PhD Fellow at the Stone Centre for Wealth and Income Inequality. I am completing my PhD at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver Canada, under the supervision of Professors Siwan Anderson, Claudio Ferraz, Nathan Nunn, and Felipe Valencia. My work investigates topics at the intersection between political economy and development economics, with an emphasis on armed conflict and gender dynamics in developing countries. I also study indigenous governance institutions and their effect on political and economic inequality, and well-being. To conduct my research, I compile unique datasets from novel sources that allow me to study questions that otherwise would remain inaccessible. My research has been funded by the Centre for Innovative Data in Economics Research (CIDER), the Association for the Study of Religion, Economics and Culture (ASREC), and the Stone Centre for Wealth and Income Inequality.

In my job market paper, I examine how female leadership during armed conflict can reduce the incidence of violent events. I leverage close municipal elections to identify the effect of female mayors on the incidence of conflict-related violence in their municipalities, finding a nearly 60% reduction in this conflict metric. I then use original data on the gender composition of Colombian guerrilla groups to show that a similar empirical pattern emerges with female leadership within these organizations. Finally, I apply supervised text-analysis algorithms to a series of campaign documents to infer the preferences of local mayors in Colombia. These findings, along with the timing of events, suggest that the reduction in violence is driven by female leaders’ stronger preference for peace and conflict de-escalation. In other research, I study how the replacement of democratic institutions with indigenous governance structures in Mexican municipalities generated political and economic inequality. Finally, in an ongoing joint project with coauthors from UBC and other institutions, we examine how the interests of U.S. multinationals in land holdings in Central America have fueled conflict, disproportionately affecting indigenous communities.

Conflict and female leadership: Evidence from Colombia (Job Market Paper)

Abstract:  This paper examines whether female leadership can reduce violence in the context of the Colombian conflict during the late 1990s and 2000s. To identify the effect, I leverage close mayoral races contested between a woman and a man. I find that after the narrow election of a female candidate, a municipality experienced a decline in the number of guerrilla attacks in the following electoral cycle amounting to 60% of the average incidence of guerrilla violence. I use a unique and novel dataset comprising the spatial distribution of guerrilla units and the gender the command line to show that female leadership in the guerrillas is also correlated with lower levels of violence. To understand the mechanisms underlying the main effects, I compile a novel dataset encompassing the campaign statements from a subset of mayoral candidates. Using unstructured text-analysis algorithms, I show that female mayors make use of more “peaceful” expressions, without diminishing their recognition of conflict. This suggests that female leaders opt for conflict de-escalation over violent confrontation whenever possible.

Campaign finance and welfare when contributions are spent on mobilizing voters (joint with Oskar Nupia)

We build a political competition model to analyze the welfare effect of campaign finance policies in a context where parties spend campaign contributions on mobilizing voters—rather than on advertising, as is usually done in this literature. This modification results in key consequences for the welfare evaluation of campaign finance policies. Additionally, we measure the social cost of contributions in terms of the quality lost on public works delivered by contributors. We find that subsidizing campaigns with public funds and simultaneously banning contributions is welfare-improving for citizens only if the parties’ mobilization technology is not especially productive. Combining non-matching subsidies with limits on contributions is Pareto-improving under same technological conditions. Imposing a contribution lump-sum tax, while simultaneously investing these revenues on public projects is welfare-improving for citizens, and combining this policy with a limit on contributions is Pareto improving. These tax results hold regardless of parties’ mobilization productivity level.

Origins of Latin American inequality (joint with Felipe Valencia Caicedo)

Abstract: How deep are the roots of Latin America’s economic inequalities? In this article we survey both the history and the literature about the region’s extreme economic disparities, focusing on the most recent academic contributions. We begin by documenting the broad patterns of national and sub-national differences in income and inequality, building on the seminal contributions of Engerman and Sokoloff (2000; 2002, 2005) and aiming to capture different dimensions of inequality. We then proceed thematically, providing empirical evidence and summarizing the key recent studies on colonial institutions, slavery, land reform, education and the role of elites. Finally, we conduct a “replication” exercise with some seminal papers in the literature, extending their economic results to include different measures of inequality as outcomes.

Indigenous institutions and economic well-being

Abstract: This project studies the economic consequences of adopting indigenous forms of governments in Mexican municipalities. Focusing on the adoption of “Usos y Costumbres” governments in Oaxaca after 1995, it explores how increased political representation and administrative autonomy relate to household income, economic growth, and inequality. While municipalities adopted institutions with varying degrees of divergence from traditional democracy, I find that those with larger deviations experienced a greater reduction in household poverty, albeit accompanied by a higher degree of income inequality. Relatedly, I find no effect on the local provision of public goods and services. Studying the different components of the reform, I find that removing voting secrecy and reverting to the traditional communal service system (i.e., “Sistema de Cargos”) seem to be the key factors driving these effects, suggesting tighter social norms and enhanced community checks and balances. Furthermore, examining prereform ethnic diversity reveals that municipalities with diverse ethnic groups tended to fare better in terms of household income and inequality. Overall, the findings indicate that municipalities where the community was able to exert stricter control over interest groups, either through institutions or by preventing the monopolization of power, benefited the most out of the increase in political autonomy.

The Spanish legacy in the US southwest (joint with Felipe Valencia)

Abstract: In this paper, we examine the enduring impact of the Spanish Empire on present-day United States. To achieve this, we digitize a series of maps displaying the locations of Catholic Missions and Presidios in California, Arizona, Texas, and New Mexico, along with the routes used by the earliest European settlers in the region. Using this dataset, we explore the economic and cultural legacy stemming from the Spanish colonial experience in these regions. We combine data from diverse sources and time periods, and across varying levels of disaggregation to assess the effects of exposure to these colonial institutions on local economic activity’s extent and composition, as well as on the inhabitants of these areas. We begin by documenting the initial success of the evangelization efforts undertaken by these missionaries, which, nevertheless, have dissipated. Similarly, the agricultural practices initially introduced to these missionary areas during the late 18th and early 19th centuries triggered a process of structural transformation, giving rise to a manufacturing sector in the early 20th century and an overall shift towards urban areas. Finally, in line with this transformative process, we identify a persistent impact of these institutions on schooling levels and educational achievements, which have fostered the rise of a highly educated middle class espousing more liberal perspectives.

Work in progress:

Catholicism and gender violence

Abstract: This project studies the long-term influence of Christianity on gender violence, examining whether the exposure to Catholicism during colonization has an effect over present-day levels of violence against women in Mexico. Leveraging novel data on the geographic distribution of indigenous populations and Catholic missions in colonial Mexico, alongside contemporary victimization surveys, the study finds a significant positive correlation between historical Catholic influence and present-day gender-based violence. To address the endogeneity of Catholic exposure, I exploit a 1705 global reform to the convent system, which altered the allocation of priests and churches across all Catholic territories. The findings suggest that Christian norms historically imposed on indigenous communities may contribute to gender violence today. Furthermore, I document the role of initial ethnographic characteristics, underscoring that the degree to which Catholic norms were integrated with preexisting local customs influenced both the adoption of new norms and the persistence of traditional ones.

The lasting impacts of US foreign interventions in Central America: The “School of the Americas” (joint with Eduardo Montero and Felipe Valencia).

Abstract: This project examines the impact of U.S. foreign policy on local conflicts in Latin America, with a focus on the indirect role of U.S. interests in the Guatemalan Civil War, particularly through the United Fruit Company (UFC) and the School of the Americas (SOA). We study whether these interests, shaped by the UFC’s extensive landholdings and the SOA’s training of Guatemalan military officials, contributed to violence and human rights abuses during the conflict. By combining newly digitized data on UFC operations with recent records of SOA graduates and the Guatemalan army roster, we are able to document the relationship between these proxy agents and patterns of violence. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design and leveraging the unique variation provided by the army data, our preliminary findings indicate a significant relationship between the presence of these institutions and instances of violence during the Guatemalan Civil War.

Multi-national firms and land conflicts (joint with Julian Arteaga and Juan Miguel Jimenez).

• 2024: Stone Centre on Wealth and Economic Inequality Fellowship
• 2023: PhD research grant – Association for the Study of Economics, Religion and Culture (ASREC)
• 2020-2024: President’s Academic Excellence Initiative (UBC); Faculty of Arts Graduate Award (UBC) International Student Tuition Award (UBC)
• 2018: A D Scott Fellowship in Economics (UBC)

Lecturer:

• Universidad de los Andes: Game Theory (2020 – undergraduate level); Advanced microeconomics (2019 – undergraduate level).

Teaching Assistant:

• UBC: Comparing Societies (graduate – joint with the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy); Political Economy II (graduate); Political Economy (undergraduate); Seminar in Applied Economics (undergraduate); Introduction to Research (undergraduate); European Economic History (undergraduate); Canadian Economic History (undergraduate); Introduction to Empirical Methods (undergraduate).
• Universidad de los Andes: Empirical Political Economy (graduate); Game Theory (undergraduate); Advanced microeconomics (undergraduate).