Daniel Jaramillo Calderon
Education
The University of British Columbia, Ph.D. in Economics, 2019 – 2025.
The University of British Columbia, M.A. in Economics, 2017 – 2018.
Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Economista, 2011-2015
About
Research areas: Development Economics, Public Economics, Economics of Crime
I am a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at The University of British Columbia, specializing in economic development, political economy, and public economics. My research examines the causes and consequences of crime and conflict in developing countries.
In my job market paper, I explore how recently released offenders affect the criminal behavior of individuals in the neighborhoods they rejoin. I provide evidence of a direct contagion mechanism, showing that releasees contribute to increased criminal activity among individuals with and without prior criminal histories.
I expect to graduate in 2025 and will be available for interviews during the 2024/2025 economics job market.
Research
The Spillover Effects of Releasing Offenders: Evidence from Ecuador (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: This paper examines whether recently released offenders influence the criminal behavior of individuals in the neighborhoods they rejoin. Using a novel dataset containing comprehensive data on arrests, prison releases, and residences for the universe of men in Ecuador and employing a difference-in-difference design around a mass pardon, I find evidence of criminogenic effects from releasees on their neighbors. Specifically, I estimate a monthly release-to-arrest elasticity of 0.23. To explain this result, I provide evidence of a direct criminal contagion mechanism among peers, particularly family members. These peer effects extend to both individuals with and without prior criminal experience. The findings suggest a detrimental impact of offender reentry, highlighting the importance of peer interactions in the spread of criminal behavior.
Working Papers
Climate Change and Female Targeted Conflict (with Siwan Anderson)
Abstract: This paper tests whether climate change threatens to intensify gender-based violence by armed political actors. To causally identify the effects, we focus on geo-located panel data for Africa. Our outcomes of focus encompass direct killings, forced kidnappings, torture, and sexual violence. We find evidence that negative climate shocks exacerbate these measures of female-targeted civilian conflict. Our results do not seem to support an opportunity cost explanation for violence on behalf of male perpetrators. Instead, they appear most consistent with a behavioral response when negative climate shocks induce heightened aggressive reactions towards females. Indicators of societal female empowerment tend to mitigate this extreme gender-based violence exacerbated by climate change. This is in line with the notion that armed male actors engage in even more gender-based violence (induced by increased climate stress and vulnerability) in societies with gender-biased views and norms.
Gangs, Truce, and their Impact on Firms: Evidence from El Salvador (with Phillip Keefer)
Abstract: Can a decline in violence hinder economic activity? We combined administrative data and a novel victimization survey to evaluate the effects of a truce between the major gangs in El Salvador on firms’ behavior. Using firms’ exposure to gang activity, we found that firms more exposed to the truce reduced their number of employees by 2%, with the impact concentrated in micro and medium-sized firms. We did not find any effects on entry and exit. We argue that the truce increased gangs’ expected punishment more than the benefits generated from the reduction in violence.
Work in Progress
Religious Violence in Africa (with Siwan Anderson and Sara Benetti)
Long-Term Effects of Missionary Activity on Conflict: Evidence from Ghana (with Siwan Anderson)
The Role of Neighborhoods and Prisons in Building Criminal Networks
Reducing Sentence Disparities by Ingroup Contact
Awards
- Young Researchers Fellowship – Mentor, LIDE (Ecuador), 2024-2025.
- President’s Academic Excellence Initiative PhD Award (UBC), 2020-2025.
- Faculty of Arts Graduate Award (UBC), 2019-2024.
- CIDE Doctoral Fellowship, Vancouver School of Economics (UBC), 2019-2020.
- CIDE Masters Fellowship, Vancouver School of Economics (UBC), 2017-2018.
- Universities of Excellence Scholarship, Ministry of Education (Ecuador), 2017 (declined).
- RCM Fellowship, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, 2014.
Teaching
- Working with Big Data, Summer 2024
- ECON 323 – Quantitative Economic Modeling and Data Science (UBC), 2022 – 2024.
- ECON 482 – The Economic Consequences of Religion (UBC), 2024.
- ECON 441 – The Process of Economic Development (UBC), 2024.
- ECON 101 – Principles of Microeconomics (UBC), 2021-2022.
- Intermediate Econometrics (PUCE), 2015.
- Industrial Organization (PUCE), 2015.
- Statistics II (PUCE), 2014.