I am a PhD candidate at the Vancouver School of Economics, University of British Columbia, and a fellow at the Stone Centre on Wealth and Income Inequality. I work on development economics, political economy, and applied microeconomics, with a focus on the economics of modern slavery, which I study using administrative data from Brazil and quasi-experimental designs. In my job market paper, I use two agricultural technologies that spread across Brazil’s frontier in the 2000s, one that displaced workers and one that created jobs, to show that modern slavery expands where workers lose their jobs and recedes where they find new ones. I expect to graduate in 2027 and will be available for interviews in the 2026-27 job market.

Job Market Paper

Technological Displacement and Modern Slavery: Evidence From Local Labor Markets (with Yuri Barreto and Gil do Vigor)

Abstract: Despite widespread expectations that economic development would eradicate slavery, modern forms of labor coercion persist, with an estimated 27.6 million people in forced labor in 2021. This paper asks whether technological change sustains or mitigates labor coercion. We link the heterogeneous adoption of labor-saving genetically engineered soybean seeds and labor-intensive maize double-cropping technology to a new dataset covering the universe of federal anti-slavery inspections in Brazil and their rescued workers. We find that greater suitability for genetically engineered soybean seeds increased reported cases of forced labor, while suitability for double-cropping reduced them. The additional cases appear in cattle ranching, the sector that hires displaced agricultural laborers, and not in the crops that adopted the technologies. The channel is the displacement of workers at risk. The records of the rescued show who they are, men with little schooling, and both technologies shift the employment of these workers far more than that of the average worker. To interpret these findings, we build a simple model in which an employer can recruit workers by deception and coerces them when the wages that slavery saves exceed the cost of recruiting them. Because workers cannot distinguish honest employers from coercive ones, the model predicts that honest employers in the coercion sector must pay a premium that increases with the prevalence of coercion. Consistent with this prediction, the coercion sector’s wage moves against the wages of the displaced workers’ alternatives. Forced labor also responds more to job losses than to job gains, so coercion expands faster than it recedes. Finally, the response comes entirely from municipalities where the coercion sector’s land was dispersed, with none where it was concentrated, consistent with the hypothesis that market concentration and coercion are substitutes, one a legal and the other an illegal way of reducing wages.

Publications

Illegal Markets and Contemporary Slavery: Evidence from the Mahogany Trade in the Amazon (with Yuri Barreto, Robson Tigre, and Daniel Castro)

Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 166 (2024), 103177

Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103177

Abstract: Modern slavery is a major global concern, with an estimated 49.7 million people enslaved in 2022. This phenomenon is often reinforced by informal markets that exploit vulnerable populations, perpetuating cycles of poverty and disadvantage. This paper explores the impact of illegal markets on this phenomenon, focusing on the complete shutdown of the mahogany market in the late 90s in Brazil. Utilizing a quasi-experimental research design that exploits the natural variation in the occurrence of mahogany trees in Brazilian municipalities, we employ novel administrative data on labor inspections to assess the effects of this shutdown on modern slavery. Our results indicate that the mahogany market shutdown significantly increased the probability of labor inspections discovering slave labor in affected municipalities. The outcomes are not influenced by coordinated police efforts targeting locations following the alteration in the law. We validate our findings with several robustness exercises. By highlighting the link between illegal markets and severe labor exploitation, our research underscores the necessity of designing policy strategies that address these root causes and prevent the exacerbation of inequality and exploitation.

The Long-Run Economic Consequences of Iodine Supplementation (with Bladimir Carrillo and Breno Sampaio)

Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 79 (2021), 102490. Lead article

Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102490

Abstract: Nutritional deficiencies in early childhood can significantly limit cognitive development and future economic potential, which often traps individuals in cycles of poverty and disadvantage. We present evidence on the impacts of a large-scale iodine supplementation program in Tanzania on individuals’ long-term economic outcomes. Exploiting the timing and location of the intervention, we find that in utero exposure to the program increased completed years of education. We find no increase in total employment, but a significant change in the occupational structure. Cohorts exposed to the program are less likely to work in agricultural self-employment and more likely to hold skilled jobs that typically demand higher levels of education. These findings suggest that early life interventions can facilitate individuals’ transition from low-productivity farming to more productive, diverse jobs in low-income regions with great potential for structural transformation. These results underscore the role of targeted nutritional interventions in promoting long-term economic mobility and reducing intergenerational poverty, highlighting their potential to break poverty traps and foster more equitable economic development.

Do Extended School Day Programs Affect Performance in College Admission Tests?(with Gustavo Bayma, Carlos Melo, Luiz Sampaio, and Marcelo Mendonça)

Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Vol. 40, No. 2 (2020), 232-266

Link: https://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/ojs/index.php/bre/article/view/81749

Abstract: We assess the effects of a Brazilian extended high school day program on college admission test scores. The program entails an increase in Math/Science and Language class time, and the introduction of extra-class activity time. We exploit variation in program implementation timing to apply a difference-in-differences strategy and an event-study approach. Results show positive, large effects on test scores and suggest that these effects are likely driven by increased class and extra-class activity hours. Moreover, the program affects not only scores in subjects for which it contemplates increased class time but also in Humanities. Finally, we are able to show that increased time dedicated to academic-related extra-class activities works as a multiplier of program effects. In fact, these additional hours spent in complementary activities make the magnitude of program effects double from 0.092-0.150 to 0.180-0.317 standard deviation.

Working Papers

Economic Production and Supernatural Beliefs: Evidence from Pastoral Societies in Africa (with Bladimir Carrillo and Breno Sampaio)

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Development Economics. IZA Discussion Paper No. 14938

Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1XaKgBnc-lvYppAKKwEC2XA7J6SIdZSnR/view

Abstract: Supernatural beliefs are present in all societies, yet we know little about why some persist more than others. We study witchcraft and argue that the mobility inherent in pastoral production weakens the social conditions that sustain these beliefs. Consistent with this argument, we show that individuals from historically more pastoral ethnic groups are less likely to believe in witchcraft today. This result holds when we use an instrumental variable based on the ecological determinants of pastoralism. Societies that depend on non-herding animal husbandry show no such reduction, indicating that it is the mobility required by herding, not animal domestication per se, that drives the effect. Beyond beliefs, pastoralism also reduces witch-related violence, and the elasticity of violence with respect to beliefs is large, suggesting that even modest reductions in beliefs translate into substantial reductions in violence.

Minimum Wages and the Human Capital of the Next Generation (with Bladimir Carrillo, Wilman Iglesias, and Breno Sampaio)

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Development Economics. Runner-up, Best Paper in Applied Microeconomics, 2021 SBE Meeting

Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/10KjUfnCJFvFrwIw05hyR3MeyR0nyRXix/view

Abstract: Whether minimum wage policies can affect the children of covered workers over the long run remains an open question. We study the long-run consequences of the unprecedented minimum wage expansion caused by the 1966 Fair Labor Standards Act Amendments, exploiting geographic variation in the baseline size of the population gaining below the new minimum wage floor and in the timing of policy adoption for identification. The results indicate that childhood exposure to the reform increased adult human capital and economic self-sufficiency. The reform led to an immediate and persistent increase in parental income, especially for mothers and those at the bottom of the distribution, with no meaningful changes in parental employment, fertility, or marital outcomes. These findings suggest that minimum wage policies can serve as an effective welfare tool, improving the early life conditions of the poor and generating lasting benefits for the next generation.

Coercion at the Frontier: Property Rights and Modern Slavery in the Amazon (with Yuri Barreto and Gil do Vigor)

Abstract: On weakly governed frontiers, land is often illegally occupied. This paper asks whether securing land against this process can reduce modern slavery. We study the Brazilian Amazon, where these frontier activities rely on geographically isolated workers with few options outside the region. We argue that these activities can sustain demand for vulnerable workers who are kept in slavery conditions. By removing land from the pool of areas available for private appropriation, formal protection can weaken this coercive frontier economy. We test this hypothesis by exploiting the staggered expansion of indigenous lands and ecological protected areas across municipalities of the Legal Amazon from 1997 to 2010. Our empirical strategy combines the timing of protected-area expansion with federal slave-labor inspection records and individual-level data of rescued workers. We find that protection strongly reduces the prevalence of slave-labor and the number of workers released. The effect is concentrated in cattle ranching and extractive activities, the sectors most closely tied to land occupation and forest conversion. Additionally, land-cover regressions show less pasture expansion and greater forest retention in newly protected municipalities, consistent with property rights curbing those frontier activities.

Long-Term Effects of a Commodity Boom: Rubber Slavery in the Amazon (with Humberto Laudares, Daniel Murillo, Hernán Paredes, and Felipe Valencia Caicedo)

IDB Working Paper No. 1764; CAF Working Paper No. 2026/02

Link: https://publications.iadb.org/en/long-term-effects-commodity-boom-rubber-slavery-amazon

Abstract: Can a brief period of economic prosperity leave a legacy of long-term adversity for local populations? This study investigates the enduring impact of the Amazon rubber boom around 1900 on contemporary income, inequality, and indigenous communities in the Brazilian Amazon. Utilizing historical rubber suitability data and modern census information, we exploit geographic variation in rubber suitability across municipalities for identification, controlling for environmental and geographical factors such as rainfall, temperature, ruggedness, distance to rivers and the coast, and altitude. Our reduced form analysis reveals that municipalities with higher historical rubber suitability presented greater per capita GDP in the 1920 Census, reflecting the initial economic surge driven by the rubber industry. However, by the 2010 Census, these areas exhibited lower average incomes and higher income inequality among the general population and Indigenous groups. Additionally, we find increased indigenous-white miscegenation as early as the 1872 Census in these regions, indicating intensified interactions between Indigenous peoples and outsiders. Moreover, our regression discontinuity analysis indicates persistent deforestation around the rubber concession areas, highlighting lasting environmental impacts of historical exploitation. These results suggest that while the rubber boom brought short-term wealth, it may have negatively affected economic equity and income in the long term, not delivering sustainable development.

The Lasting Costs of Lost Savings: Liquidity Freeze, Recession, and Equality (with Yuri Barreto)

Abstract: This paper investigates the impacts of Brazil’s Collor Plan, implemented in March 1990, which aimed to address hyperinflation through an unprecedented confiscation of over 80% of the country’s liquid assets. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we exploit variation in asset exposure across municipalities to estimate the plan’s causal effects. Our findings reveal that the Collor Plan led to a substantial and persistent decrease in total employment, average wages, and the number of firms, with smaller firms disproportionately affected. Furthermore, we observe a marked reduction in wage inequality and a significant decrease in the skill premium, highlighting the uneven impacts on different workforce segments. Strikingly, these adverse effects have persisted even 30 years after the policy was implemented, stressing the high magnitude and long-term nature of these disruptions. We identify significant and lasting credit and savings destruction as the main mechanisms driving this persistence. Although wage inequality nominally decreased, it was not due to improvements in lower wages but rather steep declines in higher wages, reflecting economic distress rather than genuine progress. These results provide new evidence of the severe and persistent economic disruptions caused by extreme monetary interventions, emphasizing the potential risks and trade-offs involved in such stabilization policies.

Moral Values and the Gender Divide in Intimate Partner Violence Attitudes (with Siwan Anderson and Patrick Francois)

Abstract: Women are paradoxically more likely than men to justify intimate partner violence (IPV), despite being disproportionately victimized by it. We examine the roots of this puzzling discrepancy by exploring how societal moral values influence IPV tolerance. Contrasting universalist values, which emphasize justice, equality, and individual rights, with communal values focused on family cohesion, ingroup loyalty, and conformity, we find that the gender gap in IPV acceptance widens significantly in societies whose traditional oral narratives emphasize communal values. Women from cultural groups whose folklore prioritizes communal over universalist morality are particularly inclined to internalize and justify IPV, consistent with system justification theories. Our results suggest that cultural narratives promoting communal values foster the internalization of beliefs that rationalize social hierarchies and male dominance among potential victims. These findings underscore the critical role played by cultural factors in shaping attitudes toward gender-based violence, providing novel insights for policy interventions aimed at reducing IPV acceptance.

Work in Progress

Market Power and Modern Slavery (with Yuri Barreto and Gil do Vigor)

Witchcraft as Governance (with Etienne Le Rossignol)

Funded by an ASREC Mini-Grant in Religion and Economic Development and by a CEPR ReCIPE grant.

Data Resource

The Anatomy of Modern Slavery Database (with Yuri Barreto and Gil do Vigor)

(in progress)

A new database built from over 37,000 inspection reports authored by Brazil’s federal anti-slavery task force between 1995 and 2024. Each report is coded under a structured protocol into variables covering coercion mechanisms, financial entrapment, recruitment, degrading working conditions, and the testimony of rescued workers.

CEPR ReCIPE Grant (£15,000), 2026

Stone Centre on Wealth and Income Inequality Fellowship, UBC (CAD$20,000 per year), 2024 – present

Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF) Research Grant (US$20,000), 2024

Inter-American Development Bank, Gender and Diversity Knowledge Initiative (GDLab) Grant (US$25,000), 2024

ASREC Mini-Grant in Religion and Economic Development (US$10,000), 2023

Runner-up, Best Paper in Applied Microeconomics, 2021 SBE Meeting

CNPq Master’s Fellowship, National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, 2016 – 2017

Teaching Assistant, University of British Columbia

ECON 101 Principles of Microeconomics, Head TA (Prof. Michael Barber), Fall 2026

ECON 102 Principles of Macroeconomics (Prof. Emrul Hasan), Winter 2026

ECON 490 Seminar in Applied Economics (Profs. Claudio Ferraz, Miguel Ortiz, and Sam Hwang), Fall 2025

ECON 465 Market Structure (Prof. Sam Hwang), Winter 2025

ECON 102 Principles of Macroeconomics (Prof. Marina Adshade), Winter 2024

ECON 101 Principles of Microeconomics (Prof. Robert Gateman), Fall 2023

ECON 102 Principles of Macroeconomics (Prof. Cheryl Fu), Winter 2023

ECON 102 Principles of Macroeconomics (Prof. Robert Gateman), Fall 2022