I am an Economist with 6+ years of experience in quantitative modeling, applied causal inference, and structural estimation. My research fields are International Finance, Macroeconomics, and Applied Microeconomics. I study how International Financial Institutions’ (e.g., the IMF) conditionality affects long-run international reserve accumulation under sovereign default risk.

I expect to graduate in spring 2026 and will be available for interviews in the 2025—2026 economics job market.

Job Market Paper

Default Risk and the Insurance Trade-offs: Bailouts or International Reserves?

Abstract: International reserve accumulation (self-insurance) and bailouts from International Financial Institutions (external insurance) are key instruments that countries use to manage sovereign debt distress. Policymakers have long argued that stringent IMF conditionality has encouraged greater self-insurance over recent decades, despite a lack of direct evidence. To investigate this relationship, I develop a quantitative sovereign default model featuring long-term debt, reserve accumulation, and a conditional bailout facility. The model yields a novel result: the relationship between conditionality stringency and long-run reserve accumulation is non-monotonic. Moderate conditionality increases reserves by shifting reliance from external to self-insurance. Very strict conditionality, on the other hand, raises default risk and makes debt-financed reserve accumulation more costly, lowering reserves. Empirical evidence reveals a nonlinear association between conditionality and reserve accumulation, consistent with the model’s prediction. Welfare analysis indicates that stricter bailout programs lead to lower overall welfare, although they deliver long-run gains by inducing safer portfolios—highlighting the importance of transition costs.

Publications

The deforestation effects of trade and agricultural productivity in Brazil

Abstract: This paper quantifies the relative footprint of trade and agricultural productivity on deforestation across Brazilian municipalities between 2000 and 2017. Using remote-sensing data, we identify distinct effects of these two phenomena on land use. Greater exposure to new genetically engineered soy seeds is associated with faster deforestation through cropland expansion. We find no significant association between local exposure to Chinese demand and deforestation, but exposure to trade with China mitigates the deforestation impacts from the new soy technology. Our findings suggest that, when considered together, productivity gains altering municipalities’ comparative advantage played a more significant role in driving deforestation across Brazil than Chinese demand alone.

Work in Progress

When Should We Help a Trading Partner? Bilateral Bailouts and Sovereign Default

• 2021–2025: 4YF Program, University of British Columbia
• 2018–2019: FGV Scholarship, M.A. in Economics, ANPEC Exam performance
• 2015: BBM Bank Scholarship