Abstract: This paper examines whether local exposure to Brazil’s 2014–2016 recession affected incumbent
mayors’ electoral outcomes in the 2016 municipal elections. The recession was driven by the end of the commodities
boom and Lava Jato, Brazil’s landmark anti-corruption investigation. Using shift-share measures
of local exposure to the Lava Jato-driven recession and China trade shocks, I find that national economic
shocks did not significantly affect incumbent mayors’ vote shares, but did influence the 2018 presidential
election. These results are consistent with voters exercising sophistication in attributing responsibility across
levels of government. Furthermore, political information amplified economic voting. Mayors from parties
with no Lava Jato defendants received an electoral premium, and there is suggestive evidence that left-wing
Lava Jato parties faced greater punishment than their center or right-wing counterparts. In municipalities
where mass protests against corruption were more widespread, voters in more recession-exposed areas punished
incumbents significantly more than those in less exposed ones.
